BAM version 3 is in the final stages of testing. We have asked David Karlsson, Senior Mathematical Fatigue Risk Modelling Specialist, a few more questions about the development of BAM 3. (See previous news flash for Part 1).
David, picking up from what you told us previously, can you please elaborate on what you meant by acclimatisation in BAM 3 being influenced by light conditions?
- The main mechanism behind acclimatisation to a new time zone is light exposure on the retina. That light exposure supresses the melatonin secretion from the pineal gland, which will, depending on the timing either delay or advance our biological clock - the circadian rhythm. We are the most sensitive to such light exposure in the late evening and the early morning. Bio-mathematical models have until now relied on the geographical/political time zone of a location as a rough proxy for that light exposure, and used the difference between the time zone and the predicted body clock time to adjust the circadian rhythm in the model.
And BAM 3 will use light exposure instead?
- Well... the real light exposure, when predicting into the future, will of course be overly complex to estimate - especially during runtime while guiding a crew optimizer. To put it in simple terms, you could say that instead of relying solely on time zone as a proxy for the light exposure, BAM 3 relies more heavily on predicted wakefulness as the proxy. After all, crew that are awake will have some light exposure to the retina, whereas crew that sleep will not. And then we of course use the overlap of wakefulness periods with the sensitivity periods in late evening and early morning, and let that feed in to the adjustment of the circadian rhythm.
This sounds quite complex, what are the benefits?
- The main benefit is that the model becomes better at predicting both sleeping patterns and alertness levels in larger time zone transition patterns when crew are away for longer times. Another benefit is that an adjustment of the circadian rhythm can occur even if crew are operating locally without any time zone transitions. With this modelling, we can better capture adaptation to consecutive early and late shifts, but also better reflect the problems crew experience when transitioning between early and late shift patterns.
Thank you David. Anything more to add? Perhaps give us a date for the general availability of BAM 3?
- I can add that our work is progressing well and that we will have a webinar providing current Jeppesen FRM customers with more information on June 4. Please contact your Jeppesen representative if you like to attend and have not yet received an invite.
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