A robust crew plan (pairings and rosters) that can withstand a fair amount of delays, crew illness etc. without 'snow-balling' into even more disruptions, is a critical aspect of crew planning. The way to cope with it efficiently is to build in buffers, fire-breaks and extra margins in the planning - and doing so where it matters the most. But how do you know it is done right, and how can you improve over time? We asked Tomas Gustafsson, one of the key persons behind a relatively new product from Jeppesen called Calibration, already adopted by operators in both Americas and in Europe.
How can an operator improve buffering using Calibration?
- In short, it is all about careful analysis of historically relevant delays superimposed on the original pai
rings, or rosters, and then measuring the planned patterns ability to absorb such disruptions. From that we create a mathematical delay model that is used for influencing upcoming plans during optimization, putting the right buffers in the right place. For those familiar with bio-mathematical models being used to reduce fatigue risk, this is quite similar - but our model needs to be tuned to each operators unique conditions.
Why are buffers so important?
- Excessive buffering is very expensive as it creates an overhead 'felt' by the airline every single day. Being short on buffers on the other hand, drives high additional costs for re-planning close to day of operation - often several percentage points in added costs and reduces On-Time-Performance. Also, relevant for this newsletter, late changes to rosters are known to drive both additional stress and fatigue for the crew - not to mention the detrimental effects on their social life. These effects can often be alleviated by using historical airline data and sophisticated models.
What is new about Calibration?
- It is easy for an airline to keep adding buffers over time, but it has historically been very difficult to be systematic about it using a data-driven methodology and also reduce buffers where motivated. Calibration adds such capability and enables a re-distribution of buffers, delivering increased robustness at a lower cost.
Where can an airline learn more about these tools?
- More material is found on this web-address and you are also most welcome to contact me and my team for a demo using the contact form found there.
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Tomas Gustafsson is Product Manager for Optimization & Analytics working out of Gothenburg, Sweden. Tomas has more than two decades of experience from enjoying (!) solving the most challenging crew & ops management problems imaginable, in close collaboration with operators world-wide. He is a keen sailor and a frequent presenter at events and conferences that addresses operations research in depth.