Most of the commercially available predictive fatigue models are based on the same validated science. The foundation is Borbély's two-process model of sleep regulationfrom 1982, and later extensions to that model. That said, it does not mean that all models are equally fit for being used for supporting the various, and quite diverse, steps in the aviation crew management process. The prediction of sleep and wakefulness, important when using the model for roster construction into future time, is one aspect where there are significant differences between models now available. Differences in computational performance is another aspect, crucial for practical usage of a model when supporting optimisers to guide solutions away from risk when putting together crew pairings and rosters.
CASA has published a document comparing fatigue models, listing some of their capabilities and other properties. When selecting a fatigue model for your operation, we recommend considering a number of additional perspectives, which is why Jeppesen have compiled a model comparison matrix you can find here. The matrix enables you to compare models side-by-side, making sure you are not missing anything of importance. Because, as it was once very wisely put:
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.'
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